Trust explainer

Methodology & Validation

Retirement math you can inspect.

SimuPlan is designed to show the assumptions, calculations, and tradeoffs behind each result. The goal is not to predict the future with certainty, but to make retirement planning clearer, more transparent, and easier to test.

Inputs

Balances, income, spending, retirement age, assumptions

Assumptions

Inflation, growth, taxes, withdrawals, Social Security, healthcare

Calculations

Projections, tax estimates, simulations, scenario comparisons

Outcomes

Balances, shortfall/surplus, success probability, drivers, insights

What SimuPlan models

  • Long-term retirement projections
  • Contributions, spending, withdrawals, and growth
  • Inflation-adjusted planning assumptions
  • Tax-aware retirement cash flows
  • Roth conversion tradeoffs
  • Monte Carlo and historical simulations
  • Scenario comparisons and plan tracking

What SimuPlan does not claim

  • It does not predict the future
  • It does not guarantee retirement success
  • It does not replace a financial advisor
  • It does not replace tax-preparation software
  • It should be used for planning, education, and scenario exploration

Projection and tax engines

SimuPlan's deterministic projection engine builds a baseline retirement path using starting balances, contributions, spending, inflation, growth assumptions, withdrawals, taxes, and ending balances. The tax engine is designed for long-term planning and scenario analysis, not tax filing.

Projection engine

  • Starting balances
  • Contributions and income
  • Spending and inflation
  • Withdrawals and growth
  • Ending balances

Tax engine

  • Federal and state tax estimates
  • Social Security treatment
  • Roth conversion impacts
  • Taxable income and withdrawals
  • Planning-grade tax calculations

SimuPlan is not tax-preparation software. Tax calculations are intended for planning and comparison, not filing returns.

Tax transparency at a glance

SimuPlan includes planning-grade tax estimates so users can compare retirement scenarios with more context. The goal is practical transparency, not tax filing or a dense tax-law manual.

  • Uses loaded federal, state, ACA/MAGI, and IRMAA assumptions where they affect retirement planning.
  • Uses reviewed state tax profiles for all 50 states plus DC, including no-broad-income-tax controls and specialized treatment where SimuPlan's current inputs support it.
  • Shows when taxes, MAGI, RMDs, and healthcare thresholds may matter for a scenario.
  • Lets Scenario Lab stress-test higher future tax rates with a simple rate-increase test.
  • Maintains state profiles as new tax-year rules are published; rules requiring facts SimuPlan does not collect remain outside the estimate and are disclosed inside the app.
  • Does not try to forecast future tax law or replace tax software.

Inside the app, the Methodology view shows a more detailed modeled-vs-simplified breakdown for users who want the deeper assumptions.

Simulation engines

Randomized Monte Carlo

Runs many randomized future market paths around the plan's expected-return assumptions. Completed investment-mix setup enables shared stock, bond, and cash movements and generic single-company concentration risk; otherwise the standard randomized model is used.

What it teaches: how sensitive the plan may be to uncertainty.

Historical testing

Tests complete rolling windows of monthly market history across the planning horizon, using a Robert Shiller-based market dataset. Historical CPI is on by default, with an option to use the plan's fixed inflation assumption. Completed investment-mix setup determines stock, bond, and cash exposure; incomplete setup retains the legacy allocation inferred from expected returns.

What it teaches: how past market environments would have challenged the plan.

Market replay

Begins the projection with a selected historical event using the same allocation rules as historical windows, then returns to the plan's configured returns for the remaining years. A separate historical CPI option is off by default.

What it teaches: why sequence-of-returns risk matters.

Investment-mix boundaries: Mixes are weighted by current balances within planning account groups. Historical periods use broad stock and bond returns; individual stocks and alternative investments use broad stock-market history. All-cash groups keep their configured return, while cash within a mixed group receives no additional growth. These settings affect simulation-based comparisons and reviews, not account balances, tax treatment, or the central projection.

A funded path can still miss the retirement target. Historical windows overlap, and a combined funded percentage across different simulation types is a summary of the tests, not a prediction of future success.

Benchmarking and validation

During development, SimuPlan's projection, tax, randomized Monte Carlo, and historical simulation engines were benchmark-tested against other respected planning tools under comparable assumptions. The goal was to keep results within a tight tolerance where assumptions overlap, investigate differences, and harden the model.

  • Compared against respected planning tools where assumptions could be aligned
  • Checked deterministic projections, taxes, Monte Carlo outputs, and historical simulation behavior
  • Investigated differences caused by taxes, inflation, withdrawal order, rounding, and tool-specific assumptions
  • Focused on consistency, transparency, and explainability rather than false precision

Different tools can still produce different results because they may use different assumptions, tax simplifications, return models, withdrawal ordering, or rounding rules.

Why retirement tools can disagree

Two retirement calculators can both be reasonable and still produce different answers. The assumptions matter.

  • Inflation assumptions
  • Market return assumptions
  • Tax assumptions
  • Social Security assumptions
  • Withdrawal order
  • Roth conversion handling
  • Healthcare assumptions
  • Rounding and timing rules

See the model in action.

Explore the demo plan to see how SimuPlan connects assumptions, projections, simulations, and plain-English explanations before entering your own numbers.